Key points:

• Gold blasts above $4,300
• US-Iran peace deal this Friday?
• Silver moves above $70 per ounce

Gold markets enjoyed a fireworks opening today with bullion pushing above $4,300. But can it last?

🏆 Gold Loves a Good Plot Twist

• Gold exploded higher to kick off the week, jumping more than 2% and blasting through $4,320 per ounce after news emerged that the US and Iran had agreed on a peace framework. Apparently, even peace can spark a gold rally these days. Strange, right?
• The agreement isn’t expected to be formally signed until Friday in Switzerland. That’s an eternity in market time, leaving traders wondering whether this is the start of a new chapter or merely an intermission.
• The move extends a dramatic rebound from last week’s lows near $4,000 an ounce. That’s roughly a $300 recovery in a matter of days — the kind of price action that makes technical analysts excited and risk managers nervous.

🛢️ Oil Drops, Rate Fears Ease

• US and Iranian officials said the framework would halt hostilities, end the US blockade of Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important routes for oil shipments.
• Crude traders wasted no time adjusting. Brent oil tumbled more than 4% to around $84 a barrel as markets priced in the return of Gulf supply and a lower risk of disruptions to global energy flows.
• The US dollar also softened, with the dollar index slipping 0.2%. At the same time, expectations for future Fed tightening eased. Traders now see a less than 50% chance of a rate hike by December, down sharply from roughly 70% just a week ago.

📅 Central Banking Anyone?

• Gold’s rally comes after months of pressure from rising oil prices, stubborn inflation, and fears that interest rates would stay higher for longer. Higher rates tend to hurt gold because bullion doesn’t pay interest or dividends.
• Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting. Policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but updated economic projections could shape the next big move in precious metals.
• The optimism wasn’t limited to gold. Silver surged 3.3% to $70.30 per ounce, while platinum climbed 3.2% to $1,777. For now, the precious-metals crowd is celebrating. Whether the party survives until Friday’s signing ceremony is another question entirely.

Source: Tradingview