Key points:

• Bitcoin floats near $65K
• Fed to decide on interest rates
• Big tech earnings to weigh on outlook

OG coin was feeling fairly optimistic to kick off the trading week as traders were already eyeing Wednesday’s rate call.

🚀 Bitcoin Starts Week on Firm Footing

• Bitcoin BTCUSD hovered around $65,000 early Monday, up about 1% after a weekend that was about as exciting as watching paint dry.
• The OG token is holding onto recent gains after pulling back from last week’s one-month high above $66,500, with traders now shifting their attention from charts to central banks.
• It’s shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the quarter. Cooling geopolitical tensions have helped steady risk appetite, but the real headline arrives Wednesday when the Federal Reserve delivers its latest interest-rate decision.
• Markets broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but the spotlight will be on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about inflation, oil prices and future policy.
• According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders still see roughly a 30% chance of a surprise hike this week and overwhelmingly expect higher rates by September.

🏦 Fed Takes Center Stage

• This Federal Open Market Committee meeting carries more uncertainty than usual. Warsh has avoided giving Wall Street clear forward guidance, keeping investors guessing about the path of interest rates.
• Higher interest rates typically pressure assets like Bitcoin because they make safer investments such as bonds relatively more attractive. When cash and government debt start paying more, speculative assets often have to work harder to win investors’ attention.
• Softer June inflation offered policymakers some breathing room, but many investors see that as a temporary pause rather than the end of inflation concerns.
• That means Bitcoin is caught between improving macro data and lingering fears that borrowing costs could stay elevated for longer.

📊 ETFs and Earnings Loom Large

• Macro isn’t the only story. Nearly one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week, including Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft.
• Their results will help determine whether Wall Street remains comfortable funding the AI spending boom or starts asking tougher questions.
• Crypto traders are also watching ETF flows after US spot Bitcoin ETFs leaked more than $465 million across July 23 and July 24, snapping a seven-session streak of inflows.
• ETF flows track institutional money entering or leaving the market, making them one of Bitcoin’s most closely watched sentiment gauges.
• Bitcoin is holding its ground near $65,000. Whether the next move is toward another breakout — or another stumble — may depend less on crypto headlines and more on what the Fed says Wednesday afternoon.

Source: Tradingview