Key points:

• DXY floats near 100.20 early Monday
• 100.60 shapes up as key resistance
• Next level to watch at 103.50 on a break

Markets are eyeing the 100.60 mark for a potential battle between bulls and bears. What’s happening?

📉 A Channel That’s Been Building for a Year

• The US dollar index DXY was drifting near 100.20 early Monday with traders watching whether the index can push higher toward a meaningful technical inflection point.
• A descending parallel channel in play traces all the way back to March 2025, when the dollar index peaked near 104.70 and never reclaimed it, establishing the starting point of a year-long pattern of lower highs and lower lows (more or less).
• A descending channel forms when price makes a series of lower highs and lower lows contained within two sloping parallel lines. The lower boundary captures where buyers have stepped in during each pullback, while the upper boundary marks where sellers have consistently capped the rallies. Together they define the trend, and right now the dollar is approaching the ceiling of that structure.
• The channel’s lower boundary is anchored by two notable support lows: 97.90 hit in April and 96.20 reached in mid-September. If those levels now hold as support on any future pullback, the upper boundary of the channel sits near 100.60, making that the level where bulls and bears are most likely to settle their next argument.

⚔️ 100.60: Where the Channel Fight Happens

• That same 100.60 threshold is shaping up as the key inflection point this week. It represents the upper boundary of the descending channel, meaning it is the price zone where sellers have historically overwhelmed buyers during every prior rally attempt since March 2025.
• A clean rejection here would confirm the channel remains intact and the longer-term trend in the dollar is still in control.
• A breakout above 100.60 would be a technically significant development, signaling that the year-long descending structure is breaking and that dollar bulls are gaining the upper hand.
• In that scenario, currency speculators would immediately shift their focus to the next resistance level at 103.50, which represents the next meaningful ceiling within the broader price history.
• The 100.20 to 100.60 range is therefore the decision zone. Moves within it are noise. A decisive close above 100.60 or a rejection and reversal from it are the two outcomes worth trading, and Monday’s session will begin to reveal which side has more conviction behind it.

Source: Tradingview