Key points:

• Bitcoin delivers in August
• Prices surge 30% for month
• Breakout above $81,000 soon?

August delivered Bitcoin’s strongest month since late 2024. One slightly descending trendline now stands between a powerful recovery and a genuine technical breakout.

🚀 August delivers the comeback

• Bitcoin BTCUSD briefly crossed $81,000 Friday morning, extending its August gain toward 30% — its strongest monthly performance since November 2024.
• The orange coin has recovered sharply from below $63,000 earlier this month, apparently deciding summer inactivity had received enough screen time.
• The rally accelerated after Bitcoin cleared the 200-day SMA at $69,000, triggering forced purchases from traders holding leveraged short positions.
• Short covering can produce rapid upside because bearish traders must buy the asset to exit. It provided the spark; continued spot demand must now provide the fuel.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a sustained run of inflows, with several billion dollars entering during August. ETF demand represents direct institutional buying rather than leveraged speculation, giving the recovery a sturdier foundation than short liquidations alone.

📉 $81,000 guards the exit

• Bitcoin is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel near $81,000. A descending channel forms when price repeatedly makes lower highs and lower lows between two downward-sloping lines.
• Until the upper boundary breaks, the broader decline technically remains intact despite August’s impressive recovery.
• A daily — and preferably weekly — close above $81,000–$81,300 would weaken the downward-channel structure and expose the wider $83,000–$86,000 supply zone.
• Failure would keep $80,000 as immediate resistance, with support around $78,000 and the earlier breakout area near $69,500.

💵 Macro gets the deciding vote

• Treasury plans to expand long-dated bond buybacks revived the “debasement trade”: buying scarce assets because government intervention may weaken the dollar’s purchasing power.
• Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million makes it a natural beneficiary whenever confidence in conventional currencies starts requiring footnotes.
• Regulatory optimism added support after President Trump urged Congress to advance the Clarity Act, which would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Clearer rules lower institutional uncertainty, although legislation still has to survive Congress.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is the immediate catalyst.
• A hawkish message could lift the US dollar and Treasury yields, challenging Bitcoin at resistance. A softer stance could weaken the dollar and help buyers attack $81,000 again.

Source: Tradingview