Key points:

• Gold prices tumble Monday
• War trade reshuffles markets
• Dollar rises on new Iran tensions

Gap lower pressured gold prices by nearly 2% Monday morning. Iran and the US are back fighting and trying to impose control over the strait.

📉 Gold Gaps Lower at the Open

• Gold XAUUSD dropped nearly 2% early Monday, sliding to around $4,730 before stabilizing closer to $4,800 as traders reacted to renewed tension between the US and Iran and shifting expectations across currencies, oil, and bond markets.
• The decline came despite the usual assumption that gold benefits from geopolitical stress. This time, a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields outweighed safe-haven demand — a not-so-kind reminder gold doesn’t rally automatically when headlines get louder.
• On Friday, gold soared more than $100 to nearly $4,900 an ounce after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial purposes. But on the weekend, things changed. And fast.

🛢️ Hormuz Tensions Shake Markets Again

• Oil prices surged after reports the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again, limiting shipping flows through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors and reigniting inflation concerns across global markets.
• The US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship raised the risk of retaliation, with Tehran signaling it would not join another round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires Tuesday — hardly the calm backdrop precious metals traders were hoping for.
• Reduced shipping activity across the Gulf amplified the “war trade,” a market pattern where energy rises, the dollar strengthens and equities wobble — a combination that can pressure gold despite its defensive reputation.
• With ceasefire talks still unresolved and Iran declining further negotiations, gold remains caught between two forces — safe-haven demand on one side and rising yields on the other. Which one wins will shape the next move.

Source: Tradingview