Key points:

• Brent crude drops 5.6% to $94
• Trump cites active negotiations with Iran
• S&P 500 futures gain 0.6% on the news

Another slippery statement or actual peace progress? Remains to be seen.

🕊️ Trump Says They’re Talking Sense

• Brent crude fell 5.6% to $94 a barrel on Wednesday after President Trump said from the Oval Office that Washington and Tehran are “in negotiations right now” and that Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement.
• West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.5% to $88. Iran denied any direct talks are taking place, which is the same contradiction that has accompanied every de-escalation headline this month.
• Trump pulled back from his earlier threat to strike Iranian energy infrastructure, citing the ongoing negotiations as the reason for the pause. The New York Times later reported, citing two unnamed officials, that the US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war.
• S&P 500 SPX futures gained 0.6%, Nasdaq Composite IXIC futures advanced 0.5%, and Dow Jones DJI futures added 311 points, or 0.7%.
• All three major averages had posted losses in Tuesday’s regular session, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.4%, the Nasdaq losing 0.9%, and the Dow falling 85 points.

🔁 We’ve Been Here Before

• Earlier this month, Trump told CBS that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” sending the Dow surging more than 1,100 points intraday and oil crashing from $119 to $81 in a single session.
• Within days, Iranian missile strikes resumed, oil climbed back above $100, and the entire move was retraced. The market bought that statement, got burned, and is now buying this one with slightly more skepticism priced in.
• The pattern is consistent enough to have a name on trading desks: the Trump peace trade. Buy risk assets and sell oil on the headline, size the position smaller than last time, keep a tight stop, and do not hold over the weekend.
• It is not a strategy anyone is proud of, but it is the strategy the market has been forced into by four weeks of conflicting signals from the same source.

Source: Tradingview