Key points:

• Tesla stock sitting on solid gains
• Traders eye more upside ahead
• Can deliveries buoy the shares?

Shares of EV maker are up a solid 20% since January. Now traders anticipate a December charge for even more gains.

🚗 Tesla Climbs Into Holiday Mode

• Tesla stock TSLA is up about 20% this year, putting the EV maker on track for a third straight annual gain. That’s a streak that looks far quieter than the stock’s actual roller-coaster behavior.
• Investors are eyeing December for a potential Santa Claus rally, the seasonal boost where markets mysteriously drift higher during the final trading days of the year.
• The stock has risen in more than half of all Decembers since its IPO, giving traders enough historical ammo to justify (or at least speculate with) one more year-end push.

🎅 Seasonal Rally Meets Tesla Volatility

• December might bring holiday cheer, but Tesla is no stranger to fireworks: its worst December ever was 2022, when shares cratered 37% amid fears Musk was spending more time tweeting (and buying Twitter) than producing cars.
• Still, seasonality favors the bulls, and with markets firming up into year-end, traders are wondering if the EV darling will deliver a clean breakout before 2026 arrives.
• The Santa rally is partly psychology, partly tax positioning — a “why fight it?” setup that tends to reward high-beta names.

🔢 Deliveries Could Be the Real Catalyst

• Analysts expect Tesla’s Q4 deliveries to land between 507,000 and 512,000 units, setting the stage for another more than 2 million cars for 2025.
• That more or less aligns with Musk’s long-term 20–30% growth targets, giving fundamentals a chance to catch up with the stock’s ambitious valuation.
• Official delivery numbers drop in the first days of January, and for many traders, that will determine whether Tesla starts the next year with a sprint, potentially extending its December performance.

Source: Tradingview