Key points:

• Euro jumps on US job losses
• Markets ramp up rate cut bets
• Key data finally trickles in

Losses amounted to 13,500 in each of the past four weeks, sending the dollar lower as more traders figured that maybe rate cuts are coming.

📉 Dollar Slips as Job Losses Stack Up

• The EURUSD pair pushed above $1.1550 Tuesday, after ADP’s private-sector data showed the US economy shed 13,500 jobs a week for the past month.
• With layoffs accelerating from just 2,500 per week in the prior update, the dollar weakened as rate-cut odds firmed up. When labor cools, the Fed typically follows with easier policy — traders know the choreography by heart.
• The move added roughly 30–40 pips to euro-dollar intraday, giving euro bulls fresh fuel while the greenback took yet another hit from softer-than-expected employment signals.

🔍 ADP Takes the Wheel

• With government data disrupted by the ongoing shutdown, ADP’s private payrolls are acting as the market’s unofficial jobs report. Not perfect, but better than flying in the dark — especially with monetary policy on the line.
• Traders leaning on “alt-data” (industry slang for non-government indicators) pieced together a labor market that’s clearly softening. That narrative alone pushed traders to unwind dollar longs and reload on euros.
• The consistent job losses painted a labor picture weak enough to challenge Fed hawks and embolden rate-cut bettors, even without official NFP figures to confirm the slide.

📅 Countdown to Rate Decision

• With NFP delayed until December 16 and CPI on December 18, the Fed’s December 10 meeting is now operating with minimal fresh data. Less noise means fewer excuses to avoid a cut.
• Unless a surprise data release lands from nowhere, the path to a December cut looks increasingly unobstructed, leaving the euro-dollar primed to stay volatile and offer some juicy trading opportunities.

Source: Tradingview