Key points:

• Euro climbs against dollar
• Exchange rate floats near $1.15
• 200-day moving average still fragile

While the pair did find support at the much-watched level, fundamentals aren’t exactly playing to the tune of “up only, right?”

📈 Technical Support Holds (For Now)

• The EURUSD pair climbed early Friday, finding buyers near the 200-day simple moving average around $1.15, a key long-term support level.
• The pair hit an intraday high of $1.1551 before trimming gains to hover around $1.1540, as traders weighed technical strength against macro uncertainty.
• While the 200-day line offers a floor for now, both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages sit above current prices, signaling persistent short- to mid-term bearish pressure that could limit upside momentum.

💵 Fundamentals Tell a Story, Too

• The ongoing US government shutdown has created an economic blackout, delaying key data and leaving investors guessing about the true health of the economy.
• The Federal Reserve’s latest statement offered little in the way of dovish conviction — policymakers stopped short of committing to another rate cut this year.
• And October’s Challenger data showed that job cuts came in at their highest since 2003, hinting that labor-market cracks are widening — but not yet enough to panic the Fed into a rate-slashing spree.

🌍 What Traders Are Watching Next

• The euro lost roughly 1.7% in October, snapping its late-summer rally but still up more than 11% year-to-date.
• Traders are now eyeing mid-November for the next US CPI print and Eurozone inflation data on Nov. 19, both of which could dictate direction heading into year-end.
• Presently, the 200-day SMA remains the battle line: hold it, and the euro may have legs for another rebound; lose it, and bears might take the mic again.

Source: Tradingview