Key points:

• Euro slides and slides
• Dollar strength carries on
• Few events here and there

Can’t expect much when the government’s lights are out. But still, maybe nonfarm payrolls? Maybe not. Likely not.

💶 A Quiet Start to November

• The EURUSD pair slipped 0.2% early Monday, trading between $1.15 and $1.1520 in the first session of the month. Dollar strength is doing the lifting here (fairly light volumes, though), with traders taking shelter in the greenback amid the ongoing data blackout.
• October was a rough one for the common currency — it fell 1.7% for the month — but zoom out, and the euro is still up 11% year to date, riding the broader wave of global de-dollarization and cautious optimism.
• Monday’s weakness marks the fourth straight daily loss, a sign that sentiment remains firmly defensive ahead of a data-light week.

🧾 NFP? No Figures Provided

• Typically, the nonfarm payrolls report would be the highlight of the first Friday of every month. But maybe not this time. The US government shutdown has wiped the release off the calendar — unless Congress manages to hammer out a last-minute deal to reopen the doors.
• Without payrolls, market direction will rely on central bank chatter, bond moves, and broader risk appetite, none of which have provided much clarity lately.
• In short: no jobs data, no strong catalysts, and plenty of sideways trading and guesswork.

📊 Next Big Checkpoints

• The US CPI report is due mid-November, assuming it isn’t delayed by the gridlock. It’ll be a crucial read for the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision in December.
• Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation — scheduled for November 19 — could offer the next major cue for the euro, especially if it confirms signs of cooling prices that might nudge the ECB toward more dovish rhetoric.
• Until then, traders are left watching technical levels. A decisive break below $1.15 could open the floor to a deeper retracement, while any sign of government progress in the US could bring back some euro buyers.

Source: Tradingview