Key points:

• Tesla shares on a tear
• Deliveries hitting Thursday
• EV maker staring at competition

Later this week Tesla will report its delivery numbers for the third quarter. Here’s what to look for in the release.

🚀 Stock Doubles Since April

• Tesla stock TSLA closed Monday at $443.21, after hitting an intraday high of $450.98. That’s less than $50 shy of its record. The run is breathtaking — since April, when tariffs sent stocks tanking, Tesla has staged a full 100% rebound.
• In just the past month, the stock has gained 27%, putting it up 9% year-to-date despite a shaky first half. Tesla bulls are back in the driver’s seat, riding momentum like it’s 2020 all over again.
• The question now: can this pace hold? Stocks rarely move in straight lines forever. Traders know a parabolic chart often calls for a breather, and Tesla has been known for violent pullbacks after monster runs.

📦 Delivery Numbers Incoming

• Thursday’s Q3 delivery report (dropping pre-market) is set to be the big swing factor. Wall Street forecasts around 447,000 deliveries — slightly below last year’s 463,000. A beat could extend the rally, while a miss risks puncturing the hype balloon.
• Tesla sold 721,000 cars in the first half of 2025, down about 13% year over year. With BYD and other rivals gaining ground, traders want proof that Tesla can still keep its lead in the EV space.
• The report doesn’t just show raw sales — it’s also a read-through on production bottlenecks, demand health, and whether Tesla can manage pricing pressure while keeping margins intact. A lot more than bragging rights is riding on this number.

🏆 Competition, Context, and Catalysts

• Chinese competitor BYD 1211 recently outpaced Tesla in sales, underlining that Musk’s empire no longer sits uncontested at the EV throne. The delivery update will be a fresh test of Tesla’s ability to fend off rivals in an increasingly crowded market.
• Beyond cars, investors are pricing in Tesla’s future bets on robotics and AI. Musk’s renewed focus on the company, including his recent billion-dollar stock purchase, is being read as a signal that he’s all-in again.
• At these levels, Tesla’s valuation already bakes in aggressive growth. Deliveries need to backstop that optimism, or risk handing bears their first real opening in months. Traders aren’t just asking “how many cars?” They’re asking “what’s the growth play here?”

Source: Tradingview