Key points:

• Strategy shares sharply lower
• Bitcoin drop weighs on valuation
• Company still biggest corp BTC holder

After a few years of solid performance, the Bitcoin hoarder is losing its premium and is staring at year-to-date losses, crashing 30% from its 2025 peak.

📉 Strategy Tanks as Bitcoin Slumps

• Strategy stock MSTR cratered 7% Thursday to $300.70, its lowest since April, as Bitcoin’s 4% slide to $109,200 dragged the whole crypto-adjacent ecosystem down with it.
• The shares of the Bitcoin hoarder have now lost one-third from their 2025 peak, erasing all year-to-date gains. That’s a painful flip for investors who thought Bitcoin’s earlier rally would extend into September.
• Strategy consistently underperforms Bitcoin BTCUSD in downturns because it’s essentially a leveraged bet on the orange coin. The company borrows, issues equity, and raises billions to hoard Bitcoin – but leverage cuts both ways.

👊 Premium Gets Hit Hard

• The Strategy trade is usually all about that “premium” – investors willing to pay above the company’s Bitcoin value just to own shares. That premium, also called net asset value (NAV) premium, has cratered from 2x in January to 1.44x today.
• Premium compression reflects investor fatigue: slower Bitcoin purchases, a capped treasury play, and less value accretion versus straight-up holding BTC. In other words, why buy the falling Strategy stock when you can buy Bitcoin directly?
• At current levels, Strategy is back to April pricing, when Bitcoin was under $90,000. This shows the stock’s premium is evaporating, leaving little cushion for bulls.

💎 What’s the Strategy Here?

• Strategy today sits on a monster 640,000 Bitcoin stash worth $70 billion, but without new mega-purchases, the narrative loses steam. That’s making it harder to justify the multiple.
• Bitcoin itself is under pressure, on track to log a monthly loss and as it tests support around $109,000. Bearish traders are eyeing $100,00 as the next big psychological level – break that and things could get dicey.
• In a nutshell, here’s the Strategy play: hold the stock and stomach the premium bleed, or switch to Bitcoin for a purer play. Either way, the company’s fate is tethered to the OG coin with no chance of change anytime soon.

Source: Tradingview